The NBA Cup brings a marquee Western clash to Houston tonight as the Denver Nuggets visit the Rockets at the Toyota Center. It’s the first meeting of the 2025 season between two fast starters. Denver sits at 11-3, Houston at 10-3, and both are riding fresh wins. The stage is set: stars in form, rotations stretched by injuries, and a playoff-style feel in November.

Who’s in, who’s out: the latest injury picture

Denver’s report is long, but the headline is steady: Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon are listed as probable and expected to play. Jokic has been managing an elbow issue, yet he’s averaging a stunning 29.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 11.1 assists. That’s a triple-double pace only a few in history can touch. Gordon is working through hamstring tightness and remains key on both ends.

The Nuggets will miss Christian Braun, who is out with a sprained left ankle. Braun’s defense and cutting usually give Denver a spark. Julian Strawther is also out with a back injury, trimming the wing depth further. Denver also lists minor injuries among G League and rotation players, including DaRon Holmes II, Curtis Jones, and Tamar Bates, which limits flexibility if foul trouble pops up.

Houston’s list is heavier at the top. Fred VanVleet is out for the season after ACL surgery, removing a veteran playmaker and voice. Dorian Finney-Smith (left ankle surgery) and Tari Eason (right oblique strain) are out as well, two key defenders who would’ve taken tough assignments on the perimeter and at the nail. Jabari Smith Jr. (right knee tendinopathy) and Steven Adams (right ankle) are both questionable and loom as swing pieces. G League wings Isaiah Crawford and Kevon Harris are also unavailable.

“If Adams suits up, Jokic won’t get easy touches all night.”

Star power at center stage

Jokic is the sun in Denver’s solar system. His scoring, passing, and control of tempo force defenses into constant choices. Jamal Murray, back to form at 22.5 points per game, gives Denver its two-man game. Gordon adds power and rim pressure, averaging 20.3 points when healthy. That core makes the Nuggets hard to blitz or switch against.

Houston counters with Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. Durant’s 25.5 points per game still compress defenses. He can rise over contests and draw help at any spot on the floor. Sengun has blossomed into a steady star at 23.4 points, 10.4 boards, and 7.4 assists. He is the hub of the Rockets’ flow, a handoff-and-cut machine who can punish switches and slip passes to cutters.

Amen Thompson adds downhill speed and length on the perimeter (16.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.2 assists). If he gets into gaps and collapses the defense, Houston’s shooters and slashers feed off that energy. Jabari Smith Jr., if active, gives spacing and length. His 14.4 points and 6.6 rebounds matter most when he’s guarding up a position and hitting trail threes.

“Durant plus Sengun is enough firepower—if the Rockets hit threes.”

The matchup math: fronts, boards, and decision time

This game tilts on the frontcourt. If Adams plays, Houston can throw more size and fouls at Jokic. If Smith Jr. is available, the Rockets gain a stretchy weak-side helper who can tag cutters and still contest the arc. Without them, Sengun will carry a giant load inside, and Houston will need help-recovery to be perfect.

Denver will test that help with split cuts and the Murray-Jokic two-man action. If the Rockets send extra bodies at the elbow, Jokic will hit backdoor cuts and open corners. If Houston stays home on shooters, Jokic can get to his soft hooks and bump-and-fade. The Nuggets want to win the glass and keep turnovers low to control pace.

On the other end, Denver’s plan is simple: make Durant work for every catch and contest without fouling. Gordon’s strength is vital here. Without Braun, the depth of wing defenders is thinner, so foul discipline matters. Sengun will try to drag Jokic into space and into quick decisions off dribble handoffs. If Denver’s weak side stunts on time, they can bait mid-range shots and late-clock plays.

Coaching chess and rotation pressure

Both benches will face choices. With Braun and Strawther out, Denver’s second unit must be sturdy, even if minutes are staggered to keep a starter on the floor. Expect Gordon to be used as a small-ball pressure point, cutting baseline and crashing the dunker spot. Jokic will test Houston’s backup bigs whenever Sengun sits.

Houston’s rotation is tighter without VanVleet, Finney-Smith, and Eason. That puts more on Thompson to initiate, and more on Durant to close quarters. If Adams can go, even in a limited role, he offers screen-setting force and a big body on the defensive glass. If not, the Rockets will need gang rebounding from wings and guards.

“Murray’s health turns this from a toss-up to Denver by a nose.”

Recent form and what it means tonight

Both teams arrive confident. Denver beat the Pelicans 125-118 by doing what they do best: trust the half-court and let Jokic steer late possessions. Houston has banked back-to-back wins over the Cavaliers and Magic, showing growth and grit despite absences.

Momentum matters in these NBA Cup games. The stakes are higher than a typical early-season night. The crowd will feel that, and so will the players. Prime Video gets a good one.

Keys to the game

• Jokic control: If he dictates pace and picks apart help, Denver’s offense hums.
• Rockets’ rim protection: Adams/Smith Jr. availability could swing the paint battle.
• Turnovers: Each giveaway feeds the other team’s run. Clean possessions are gold.
• Durant’s shot diet: The more his looks come in rhythm, the more the defense bends.
• Bench minutes: Short-handed units must survive their shifts without big runs.

Prediction lens

On paper, Denver is a slight favorite because its core stars are active and in rhythm. Houston’s path is clear: win the boards, keep the ball in front, and let Durant and Sengun carry the late-game load. If either Smith Jr. or Adams suits up and looks sharp, the Rockets’ chances rise sharply.

Either way, expect a close game that turns on a handful of late possessions. One scramble rebound, one corner three, one smart foul could be the difference.

Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET (8:30 PM CT) on Prime Video. Settle in. The Cup is heating up, and this one has the feel of a spring preview in the fall.