San Antonio and Houston collide again Tuesday night in a game that feels bigger than a mid-January date. The Spurs arrive at 30-13, riding a three-game win streak and sitting second in the West. The Rockets, 25-15 and fifth in the conference, have steadied with two straight wins and a 14-3 fortress at home. Oddsmakers see it tight but lean Houston by 4.5, with a total set at 221.5.

Injuries loom large on both sides of I-10. The Spurs have not yet filed their official report for the day, while the Rockets are juggling absences that directly hit their identity. The result? A matchup shaped by who is available and who can adjust fastest.

Tip-off, odds, and what’s at stake

The Toyota Center will be loud at 8:00 PM CT, and there’s an edge in the building—Houston is a dominant 14-3 on its home floor. Yet the Spurs already solved this puzzle once, winning the previous meeting 121-110 behind Victor Wembanyama, Barnes, and Julian Champagnie. That win didn’t just put points on the board; it offered a blueprint on how San Antonio can travel and control the game.

The line sitting at Houston -4.5 suggests respect for that home form and the Rockets’ bounce-back from a rough stretch in which they dropped five of seven and flirted with the Play-In zone. The total at 221.5 hints at a balanced pace—neither a sprint nor a slog—where rebounding and half-court execution could decide the final few possessions.

Injury report: Rockets shorthanded, Spurs pending

San Antonio’s status sheet is still to come, but one major note has been hanging over their rotation: Devin Vassell. As previously reported, “Vassell is battling with a right adductor strain, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.” That’s a meaningful hit to the Spurs’ scoring and spacing on the wing.

Houston’s list is longer and affects the spine of how they play. “Adams exited the previous game due to a sprained left ankle injury, and he is not expected to play against the Spurs on Tuesday.” The big man’s impact on the glass and in screening actions is hard to replace. Tari Eason, a disruptive forward who has missed five straight with an ankle issue, remains a question mark. And Fred VanVleet’s ACL tear has reshaped the backcourt mix entirely.

The Rockets also have Isaiah Crawford and Tristen Newton on G League duty, thinning practice reps and next-man-up options on the fringes of the rotation. It’s a puzzle for Houston’s staff: protect home court while managing legs and roles.

“No Adams, no boards—can Houston survive Wemby?”

Why Steven Adams’ absence tilts the glass

Houston has been the best rebounding team in the league this season, and that’s not by accident. “Adams has been among the team’s best frontcourt contributors so far this season, averaging 8.6 rebounds across just 22.8 minutes per game.” His strength clears space for guards, and his timing limits opponent second chances.

Without him, the Rockets must gang rebound and box out earlier in the shot clock. That becomes even more urgent against Wembanyama, whose length can turn a normal miss into an instant put-back or a kickout three after an offensive board. If Eason remains out, that’s two high-motor rebounders and defenders gone, and San Antonio can tilt the possession battle.

On the other end, Adams’ screening unlocks rhythm threes and downhill drives. Without those bone-jarring picks, Houston’s ball-handlers need sharper angles and quicker decisions. It won’t be about one player replacing him; it’s a committee job.

“Spurs haven’t filed the report yet—if Vassell sits, who’s the spacer?”

Spurs form vs. Rockets’ home edge

San Antonio’s three-game surge shows a team growing into its identity. The defense looks tighter, and the offense takes care of the ball in key moments. When Wembanyama is rolling, the floor opens for complementary scorers like Barnes and Champagnie, who both starred in the earlier 121-110 win.

But Houston’s 14-3 home record is real. They’ve won two straight and found their footing after that seven-game wobble. The crowd helps the young core play faster and more confident. If the Rockets dictate tempo early, they can ride that wave through the fourth.

Last time they met: Spurs 121-110

The Spurs didn’t just outscore the Rockets; they out-executed them. Wembanyama’s gravity created easy looks, Barnes punished mismatches, and Champagnie provided timely shooting. That’s the model again: win the shot quality battle, protect the glass, and avoid live-ball turnovers that feed Houston’s transition game.

“14-3 at home means nothing if you lose the 50-50 balls.”

Matchups and keys to watch

• The glass without Adams: Can Houston’s bigs and wings keep Wembanyama and the Spurs off second-chance points? That’s a swing stat.
• Eason’s status: If he returns, Houston adds defense, energy, and extra rebounding. If not, San Antonio’s wings can be more aggressive.
• Ball-handling minus VanVleet: The Rockets must value possessions and create paint touches without their lead guard. Turnovers equal runouts for San Antonio.
• Spurs’ spacing if Vassell sits: With a key shooter and scorer out indefinitely, Barnes and Champagnie become critical floor balancers around Wembanyama.
• Foul trouble: Early whistles on either front line could reshape rotations and open lanes. Watch the first six minutes of each half.

The number: 221.5 and what it implies

A 221.5 total suggests a controlled pace. That suits both sides when they are set and organized. For Houston, that means pounding the paint and getting to the line; for San Antonio, it’s about half-court precision and making the extra pass.

If the Rockets win the rebounding battle despite Adams’ absence, they can squeeze extra shots and grind the clock. If the Spurs win it, they can turn a low-possession game into a high-efficiency night.

Bottom line

Houston is favored for a reason: a superb home mark and a roster that, even banged up, competes hard. But the injuries matter. Without Steven Adams (not expected), the Rockets’ top-tier rebounding machine faces a true test against Wembanyama’s length. With Tari Eason’s status uncertain and Fred VanVleet sidelined by an ACL tear, Houston’s margin for error shrinks.

San Antonio, meanwhile, waits on its own report, with Devin Vassell still out for an unknown stretch due to a right adductor strain. If the Spurs replicate the formula from their 121-110 win—control the glass, take smart threes, and let Wembanyama bend the game—the upset is very live. If Houston brings its 14-3 home swagger and wins the hustle stats, the line will make sense.

Two teams with playoff goals. One building that rarely gives. And a glass battle that could decide everything.