The Western and Eastern Conference elite meet in Denver on Tuesday night, but the headliner will be missing. The Denver Nuggets host the Detroit Pistons at Ball Arena (9:00 PM ET), and the final injury report tells the story: Nikola Jokic remains out, while Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, and Jonas Valančiūnas are listed as probable. Detroit arrives with the NBA’s best recent form and a favorite’s tag on the road.

This is not just another January game. The Pistons, 33-11 and sitting first in the East, have won nine of their last 11 and carry a -6.5 spread with a total of 218.5 on the board. The Nuggets, 31-15 and third in the West, are back home after a rare travel delay caused by a winter storm, scrambling for rhythm without their two-time MVP.

Tip-off, stakes and the betting picture

Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena. The Pistons are deserved favorites at -6.5 given Jokic’s absence and their hot streak. The total of 218.5 suggests oddsmakers expect a steady pace, but not a track meet. Detroit’s balance and recent scoring pop are real. Their last outing was a 139-116 statement over Sacramento, where Cade Cunningham dropped 29 points and 11 assists.

Denver, meanwhile, is trying to steady the ship. They are still a top-three seed in the West, and they defend well at home. But the market is signaling how much Jokic’s playmaking and gravity mean to everything the Nuggets do.

“Six-and-a-half on the road? That’s how much Jokic tilts the floor.”

Denver Nuggets injury report: Jokic out, key trio probable

The Nuggets officially ruled out Jokic for Tuesday, a decision that landed with a thud for fans who circled this week as a possible comeback window. It has now been four weeks since his injury on Jan. 16, with a target of Feb. 1 for his return. As one club note summed up, “Fans were very disappointed when they saw the Nuggets rule out Jokic for Tuesday’s game.”

There is good news elsewhere. Despite seven names on Denver’s injury report, three core pieces are trending toward playing:

• Jamal Murray – Probable (Right hamstring inflammation; Left hip inflammation)
• Peyton Watson – Probable (Right ankle strain; Left ankle sprain)
• Jonas Valančiūnas – Probable (Right calf strain)

In the team’s wording: “PROBABLE: Jonas Valančiūnas (Right Calf Strain) Jamal Murray (Right Hamstring Inflammation, Left Hip Inflammation) Peyton Watson (Right Ankle Strain, Left Ankle Sprain)” Additionally, “OUT: … Aaron Gordon (Right Hamstring Strain)” was noted among the absences.

Complicating the lead-up, the Nuggets “did not get back to Denver until Monday night after being stranded in Memphis for a few days due to a winter storm” and returned home “about 24 hours before tip-off.” The unforeseen delay likely stole practice and treatment time, which matters when a roster is banged up.

“This is the Peyton Watson window—let the kid run, defend, and fill it up.”

Detroit Pistons health and form

Detroit’s report is lighter, with only minor absences listed. The Pistons’ momentum is clear: nine wins in 11, and an offense humming around Cade Cunningham’s steady hand. Cunningham is averaging 19.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 8.8 assists, with 1.7 threes per game. He’s not just scoring; he’s steering the whole show.

There is also a watch item for Tuesday: Cameron Johnson’s injury dated to Jan. 15, with an expected return of Jan. 27. If available, his spacing and shooting would further stress Denver’s defense and open driving lanes for Cunningham.

Detroit’s most recent performance, a 139-116 win over Sacramento, showed the blueprint: quick decisions, strong spacing, and bench pop. They will try to replicate that in Denver, even at altitude.

Matchups and numbers to watch

Murray vs. Cunningham: Murray is averaging 21.8 points and 6.7 assists with 2.8 made threes per game. Cunningham’s 19.4 and 8.8 line speaks to control and creation. If Murray is moving well after his recent knocks, this guard duel could decide the closing minutes.

Peyton Watson’s rise: Watson is at 18.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game. His length and energy help Denver cover gaps when Jokic sits. He can swing the game with transition plays and corner threes (1.9 per game). Denver needs his two-way spark.

Inside battle: Jonas Valančiūnas, probable with a calf strain, gives Denver size, screening, and soft touch. His presence matters on the glass and in half-court sets, where the Nuggets must manufacture points without Jokic’s playmaking hub.

Total at 218.5: The number hints at a mid-tempo game. Detroit’s defense can flatten runs, but their offense has been clean and efficient. Denver’s efficiency, without Jokic, may depend on threes and turnover margin.

“Cade vs. Jamal is chess. First pull-up three wins the tempo.”

Why it matters for January and beyond

For Denver, it’s about weathering the last stretch without Jokic and keeping contact with the West’s top two seeds. A win over the East’s current pace-setter would be a strong locker-room boost and an ELO-bump type victory. It would also validate the depth that must carry minutes when stars sit.

For Detroit, this is a road check on a contender’s floor. The Pistons’ 33-11 start is no fluke, and nights like this, where the spread says they should handle business, are how one-seeds take shape. Stringing strong wins now also gives them room to manage minutes down the stretch.

The bottom line

Jokic’s absence shapes everything, but the Nuggets still have paths. If Murray controls pace, Watson ramps up the pressure on the wings, and Valančiūnas anchors the paint, Denver can drag this into a clutch-time coin flip at home. Detroit, though, has the cleaner form, the rest edge, and perhaps the best creator on the floor right now in Cade Cunningham.

Watch the first six minutes: Denver’s legs after the travel delay, Murray’s burst, and how Detroit guards the three-point line. Those early clues may tell us if the underdog has enough to steal one before Jokic’s expected return on Feb. 1.