The biggest injury headline on Tuesday’s NBA slate sits in New Orleans: Nikola Jokic remains out for the Denver Nuggets. That single line swings the math and the mood for a matchup between teams on opposite ends of the Western Conference table. Denver, 26-13 and sitting third, visits a New Orleans group stuck at 9-32 and trying to patch together a rotation yet again.

This game is a study in how injuries tilt outcomes. With Jokic, the Nuggets have been a machine: 22-10 with a +7.2 net rating. Without him, they are still winning but by slimmer margins (4-3) and a negative net rating (-4.0). For New Orleans, the scratches are just as real, even if the records are not as kind.

Tip-off is set for Jan. 14 at 01:00 a.m. ET on ALT. The early line favors Denver by 1.5 points with a total of 233.5. It’s the third meeting of the season, and both sides are navigating one of their busiest injury reports of the year.

Who’s playing and who isn’t? Full injury report

Denver’s list is long and important. As of the latest official update on Monday afternoon, here’s how it looks:

• Nikola Jokic: Out (left knee bone bruise)
• Jamal Murray: Questionable (left ankle sprain/illness)
• Aaron Gordon: Probable (right hamstring strain)
• Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
• Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee bone bruise)
• Jonas Valanciunas: Out (right calf strain)
• Spencer Jones: Probable (left ankle inflammation/illness)
• Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)

New Orleans is also missing key rotation pieces:

• Saddiq Bey: Questionable/Probable (right hip flexor strain)
• Herb Jones: Out (right ankle sprain)
• Jose Alvarado: Out (left oblique strain)
• Dejounte Murray: Out (right Achilles rupture)

It’s no surprise, then, that analysts are calling Denver’s status sheet the slate’s most consequential. The names involved are stars, starters, and key role players. It will reshape rotations on both benches.

“If Jokic sits again, can Denver’s guards carry the playmaking load?”

Why Jokic’s absence changes the game plan

Jokic is Denver’s heartbeat. When he plays, the offense hums and the defense steadies. The Nuggets average 122.7 points per game this season, and while that’s a team figure, it flows from Jokic’s touch and tempo. He’s at 19.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per night, and those assists are a big clue: he gets everyone shots in their favorite spots.

Without him, Denver’s shot profile changes. The ball sticks more. The rim pressure dips. Defensive rebounding gets harder. That’s why the net rating drops from +7.2 to -4.0 when he’s out. It doesn’t mean Denver can’t win — they’re 4-3 without him — it means they have to win differently.

Jamal Murray’s starring turn — if he plays

Jamal Murray has been the clear counterweight when Jokic sits. He’s at 22.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 7.2 assists this season, and in his last two outings without the big man he averaged a wild 24.5 points and 16.5 assists. That’s elite creator stuff.

But Murray is listed as questionable with an ankle sprain and illness. If he plays, Denver’s offense keeps its two-man rhythm feel, even without Jokic, by leaning on Murray’s drive-and-kick game. If he can’t go, the Nuggets will need more on-ball work from everyone else and heavier usage for the wings.

The good news for Denver: Aaron Gordon is probable and brings 18.4 points per game and strong defense at the forward spot. Spencer Jones is also probable. The bad news: Christian Braun’s perimeter defense is out of action, and floor-spacer Cameron Johnson remains sidelined. Frontcourt depth is thinner with Jonas Valanciunas also out.

“Murray at point-god levels or bust — that’s the swing factor tonight.”

Pelicans’ health puzzle and what it means

The Pelicans can’t catch a break. They’re 9-32 and have been shorthanded often. Herb Jones, their top stopper on the wing, is out. Spark-plug guard Jose Alvarado is out. Dejounte Murray, their headline guard addition, is out for the season with an Achilles injury. Saddiq Bey, a key shooter and rebounder at forward, is trending toward available but is still listed as questionable/probable with a hip strain.

Without those wings, New Orleans must manufacture stops by committee. They also need scoring balance. Bey’s shooting (around 15 points and 5 rebounds) would help stretch the floor and keep Denver honest. Even with all the issues, the Pelicans did split their last two road games, showing some fight despite the record.

This will be their third clash with Denver this season. Familiarity can help a young group stay organized on defense, especially against a Nuggets team missing its centerpiece.

Recent form, and how thin margins decide it

Denver has won three of its last four games. One of those, a 108-104 grind over Milwaukee, came without Jokic, Murray, Braun, Valanciunas, or Johnson. They also absorbed a 23-point loss to Atlanta, a reminder that depth can bend only so far on back-to-backs and tough travel.

New Orleans has been on the wrong end of most margins this season, but home court can slow a game down and keep it close. If the Pelicans protect the ball and win the glass, they’ll give themselves a chance late.

“If Bey suits up, that’s their spacing. No Bey, and Denver can pack the paint.”

Numbers that matter: net ratings and matchups

The Nuggets’ splits tell a clear story. With Jokic: 22-10, +7.2 net rating. Without: 4-3, -4.0. Another eye-opener: with center depth healthy, the team rate has been strong — 23-9 and +7.4 when key bigs are available — but drops to 3-4 and -4.9 when that group is thin. That underlines how important the paint and the defensive boards will be in New Orleans.

Player averages also sketch the blueprint. Murray’s scoring and playmaking should set the tone if he’s cleared. Gordon’s energy can tilt the hustle stats. For New Orleans, a healthy Bey gives them spacing and secondary rebounding. Without Herb Jones, the Pelicans lose their best answer for Denver’s top wing scorers.

Betting outlook and what to watch

The line sits at Denver -1.5 with a total of 233.5. If Jamal Murray is ruled in, the spread could tick toward Denver. If he’s out, the number may swing to a pick’em or toward the Pelicans. The total hinges on pace and shot-making from secondary players. Without Jokic, Denver’s pace can slow, but Murray-led games often boost assists and corner threes. Keep an eye on late news.

What will decide it? Turnovers, second-chance points, and who controls the last six minutes. If Denver wins the glass and keeps the ball moving, they should carry their 68.8% Jokic-era win pace into another road result even without him. If the Pelicans turn it into a scramble, get to the line, and hit timely threes, the upset path is there.

Either way, both teams will learn something about their depth. For Denver, it’s about surviving a stretch without their star. For New Orleans, it’s about building habits despite the absences. We’ll see which bench blinks first when the lights come on at Smoothie King Center.