Rabat readies for a giant semifinal. Hosts Morocco meet last tournament’s finalists Nigeria in the AFCON 2025 last four at the Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium, a 70,000-seat cauldron built for nights like this. Kick-off is set for 8pm GMT (12:00 PM ET) on Wednesday, January 14, 2026.

It is the matchup this tournament has been teasing: Morocco’s best-in-class defense against Nigeria’s free-scoring attack. One goal might be enough. Or it could turn into a shootout if the Super Eagles find space behind the Atlas Lions’ back line.

Attack vs defense: the semifinal’s core story

Nigeria arrive as the tournament’s top scorers with 14 goals. They have conceded just 4 and kept 2 clean sheets. The front three has carried real bite: Victor Osimhen is at 4 goals and 2 assists, Ademola Lookman has 3 goals and 4 assists, and Adams has chipped in 2 goals. Together, they have produced 9 of Nigeria’s goals and set the tone with pace, movement, and sharp finishing.

Morocco, by contrast, have built their tournament on control and clean sheets. They have 9 goals for and only 1 against, with 4 shutouts. That blend of calm buildup, smart pressing, and compact lines is no accident. This is a team that reached the 2022 World Cup semifinals and learned how to win without giving much away.

“Can Morocco’s wall really stop Osimhen and Lookman for 90 minutes?”

Star power and a big absence

Morocco’s leading light has been Brahim Diaz, the tournament’s top scorer with 5 goals. He has scored in all five of Morocco’s matches — a rare, icy-calm streak in front of goal. When Diaz drifts between the lines, he makes defenders guess. That opens lanes for Ayoub El Kaabi, whose 3 goals show his danger in the box.

Nigeria’s firepower is obvious. Osimhen can bully center backs and still sprint in behind. Lookman’s creativity and timing have been crucial, while Adams’ movement and finishing keep back lines honest. But there is a problem to solve: Wilfred Ndidi is suspended. Without their midfield anchor, Nigeria must adjust. The shape in the middle — who screens, who steps up, who tracks Diaz — could decide the flow of the game. The Super Eagles will need discipline when Morocco pull them side to side.

Rabat’s roar, history’s weight

This semifinal is in Rabat, and that matters. The Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium will be loud and partisan. Morocco are chasing a first AFCON title in 50 years, and this team, even without full strength, has shown calm, tactical understanding, and a knack for doing just enough at the right time. They topped Group A with 7 points and then beat Cameroon 2-0 in the quarters.

History leans their way too. The all-time head-to-head reads Morocco 6 wins, Nigeria 3, and 1 draw. The last meeting between these sides ended 4-0 to Morocco in 2018. In the Africa Cup of Nations, their 2004 clash went to Morocco 1-0. None of that decides a semifinal, but it shapes confidence and belief.

“History says Morocco, but the goals say Nigeria. What gives?”

Nigeria’s form and mindset

Nigeria took out Algeria 2-0 in the quarterfinals after a 4-0 cruise past Mozambique. They have faced back-to-back North African opponents in these knockouts — something they have not done since 1980 — and handled the first test with authority. Under coach Eric Chelle, the Super Eagles have sharpened their structure and spirit, even after the sting of a World Cup playoff loss earlier in the cycle. They were finalists last time. The goal now is clear: win a first AFCON title since 2013.

The opportunity is huge. Nigeria have the form, the goals, and a front line that looks built for big moments. But they need care in midfield without Ndidi, and they must avoid the trap of chasing the game too fast if Morocco slow the tempo.

Tactical keys: space, control, and set pieces

How does this play out? Nigeria will want quick wins of the ball and fast breaks into space. They will try to isolate Osimhen against a center back and feed Lookman between fullback and center back. Transitions are Nigeria’s friend. If they can force turnovers high and strike within three passes, Morocco will be under stress.

Morocco will prefer order. Expect patient passing, fullbacks that push only when the midfield screen is set, and careful pressing triggers. The Atlas Lions will look to keep the ball moving until Diaz finds a pocket between the lines. Once he receives on the half-turn, he can slip El Kaabi through. If Nigeria’s fullbacks bomb on, Morocco will hit those gaps.

Set pieces could swing this. One well-placed free-kick or corner might decide a tight night. Both teams have aerial threats and good delivery.

Prediction and stakes

This feels like a one-goal game either way. Some predictions are leaning toward Nigeria — even calling a 2-1 Super Eagles win — but the margins are razor-thin. Morocco’s defensive record and home crowd are real edges. Nigeria’s scoring form and confidence are just as real.

What we know: both sides passed their quarterfinal tests 2-0, and both have stars who can grab a semifinal by the neck. One Diaz run or one Osimhen header might be the difference.

“If Diaz scores again, it might be Morocco’s night in Rabat.”

Kick-off details: Nigeria vs Morocco

AFCON 2025 semifinal, Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium, Rabat.

• Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
• Kick-off: 8pm GMT / 12:00 PM ET

Hosts versus heavy hitters. Best defense versus best attack. A stadium ready to explode. It’s all lined up for a classic. Whoever holds their nerve — and their shape — will book a spot in the final.