Two teams jockeying for position in the Eastern Conference meet again in Miami. The Orlando Magic (24-21) head to Kaseya Center to face the Miami Heat (26-20) on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET. Orlando has nudged into sixth place. Miami sits seventh, and both carry real momentum: the Magic have won one straight, the Heat three in a row. Miami took the latest meeting, 111-102, on January 25. Earlier in Orlando, the Magic claimed two nail-biters by a combined five points. The margins are tiny, and the stakes feel big.

Injury report: Magic vs. Heat updates

Orlando will again be without forward Franz Wagner (left high-ankle sprain, injury management). He has been out since December 7 and has missed 16-plus games. Head coach Jamahl Mosley said Wagner is currently limited to spot shooting and is not yet running or cutting. Two-way big Colin Castleton is also out (G League, two-way).

Wagner’s absence matters. He was averaging 22.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.2 steals in 33.4 minutes across 24 games. Those are star-level two-way minutes and touches that change how Orlando plays.

Miami’s list is long. Tyler Herro is out (right costochondral, ribs), and Terry Rozier is out (not with team). Norman Powell (low back tightness), Kel’el Ware (right hamstring strain), and Davion Mitchell (left shoulder sprain) are questionable. The Heat do get some wing help: Jaime Jaquez Jr. is available after a left knee sprain, Andrew Wiggins is available (left hamstring tightness), and Pelle Larsson is available (left 3rd mallet; finger). Two-way players Vladislav Goldin and Jahmir Young are out.

“This one comes down to who’s actually on the floor at tip-off.“

Franz Wagner’s timeline and the Magic’s pace shift

Orlando’s style has shifted without Wagner. Before his injury, the Magic played at 101.3 possessions per 48 minutes. Since then, they’re at 99.4. That’s a modest slowdown, but it matters in a game of thin margins. Fewer possessions mean fewer easy points in transition and more half-court problem-solving.

Wagner has made clear he’s pushing for a return. “I’ve been working really hard the last couple of weeks to get back as soon as I can. Hopefully that will be in Berlin,” he said. The team is being careful, though, and Mosley’s update suggests they won’t rush it. Orlando has managed an 8-8 record in Wagner’s absence, a sign of strong depth and structure but also of how tough the East has become.

That puts more weight on Paolo Banchero, who is averaging 22.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists. He is the lead playmaker and pressure point in the half-court, especially when the Magic lean slower. Expect him to see traps and physical defenders at the elbows and nail. The question becomes: can Orlando’s supporting cast hit enough shots to keep Miami honest?

“If Wagner’s out, Paolo has to be the engine again — all night.“

Heat injuries, depth, and a January grind

The Heat are grinding through a heavy slate: 17 games in January, tied for the most in franchise history for a single month. That’s a lot of minutes to manage and a lot of rotation juggling. Without Herro and Rozier, Miami’s creation and shooting take a hit. That’s where the status of Powell, Ware, and Mitchell looms large. If even one of them is active at near-full strength, the Heat’s scoring balance looks more stable.

Availability of Jaquez and Wiggins gives Erik Spoelstra more size and switchability on the wings. That’s useful against Banchero-led sets and Orlando’s drive-and-kick game. Expect Miami to lean on its home comfort too: historically, the Heat are 45-25 at home against the Magic and 81-63 overall in the series.

Series history and the stakes tonight

This is the third of four regular-season meetings. The Magic edged both earlier games in Orlando by a combined five points, but Miami took control in the most recent clash, winning 111-102 on January 25. With the standings tight and tiebreakers in play, every possession should feel like a playoff-style chess match.

Orlando’s one-game win streak versus Miami’s three-game surge sets a clear tone: one side is trying to steady its new pace without a key scorer, the other is pushing through injuries with depth and defense. The difference could be as simple as which team wins the turnover battle and finds five extra free throws.

“Under 229.5 feels live if both sides keep it half-court.“

Odds, totals, and what the numbers suggest

Books open with Miami as a 3-point favorite (-110) at home, with a -144 moneyline. Orlando is +3 (-110) and +122 to win outright. The total sits at 229.5.

What does that say? The market leans Heat—home court, recent form, and a bit more proven late-game offense. The total sits in a middle zone, but Orlando’s recent pace dip without Wagner and Miami’s injuries suggest the under case is at least logical. If Powell is ruled out and the Heat remain short on shot creation, that nudge to the under grows stronger. If he plays, Miami’s spacing and downhill pressure get a lift, and the number makes more sense.

What to watch: three swing factors

• Half-court execution: With Orlando slower since Wagner’s injury (99.4 pace), clean sets matter. Can Banchero bend Miami’s help and find open threes?
• Heat wings vs. Paolo: With Jaquez and Wiggins available, Miami can throw fresh, physical bodies at Banchero. Fouls and late-clock scoring will be key.
• Bench lift: If Powell, Ware, or Mitchell suit up, the Heat’s second unit has more punch. If not, Orlando’s depth can steal minutes.

The bottom line

Orlando’s identity without Franz Wagner is slower and more deliberate, leaning into Banchero’s playmaking. Miami is piecing together offense while navigating a heavy January, but the Heat’s defense and wing depth at home are real advantages. The market has it close with Miami -3, and that feels fair in a game that may again hinge on a handful of possessions.

One more layer: Wagner’s return is getting closer—he’s targeting “soon,” with hope for Berlin—but the Magic still need to grind wins without him. Do that on the road in Miami, and it’s a statement in the East.