The Miami Heat will face the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday night in California without Tyler Herro. The guard has been ruled out with a rib injury, his third straight missed game, and he’s expected to sit the rest of the five-game Western Conference trip that started in the Bay Area. Tip-off is set for 10:00 p.m. local time in Sacramento, and the injury news shapes a matchup that oddsmakers still lean toward Miami to win.

On the other side, the Kings list Keon Ellis as questionable with a knee issue. Sacramento’s depth on the wing is already thinned with Keegan Murray out due to an ankle sprain, turning the spotlight to their guard rotation just hours before the game.

Heat vs Kings Injury Report: What’s confirmed

The Heat officially ruled out Herro after an MRI confirmed a painful rib problem stemming from last Thursday’s game against the Boston Celtics. He’s listed as a right costochondral injury to the ribs, which aligns with the team’s note that the situation is about pain tolerance and not surgery. As one report summarized, “The news on the injury front turned even more complex for Tyler Herro, with an MRI showing a painful rib issue that is expected to have the Heat guard out for the entirety of the team’s five-game western swing.”

Herro’s return timeline is open-ended. “Officially listed by the Heat on the NBA injury report as a ‘right costochondral injury to the ribs,’ the issue stands as an issue of pain tolerance, not surgical.” That means he will play again when the pain is manageable, but there’s no firm target date. Another listing added, “Herro is nursing with a rib injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.”

For Sacramento, Ellis’ status is the key watch. He’s questionable with left knee soreness. “Ellis is dealing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will be active against the Heat on Tuesday,” the report notes. Keegan Murray remains out with a left ankle sprain, which affects the Kings’ size and spacing on the wing.

“Pain tolerance or not, a rib in January is not worth rushing.”

Tyler Herro’s season: bursts of scoring, stops and starts

When Herro has played, he’s produced. In 11 games this season, he’s averaging 21.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.0 steals while shooting 49.7% from the field and 35.8% from deep. But the season has been choppy. He missed the first 17 games after ankle surgery, then sat 13 more with a toe contusion. Now the rib injury arrives just as Miami hit the road for a tough swing.

Team results have also been uneven in his appearances. Miami is 4-7 in Herro’s 11 games. That stat requires context: lineups have changed often, roles have shifted, and rhythm has been hard to build. Still, it hints at the bigger story for the Heat — this group has yet to have a long, clean run together.

What Herro’s absence means for Miami tonight

Without Herro’s shot creation, the Heat must lean on balance. Expect more touches to swing side-to-side and more bodies cutting to the rim. The good news: Miami has built habits to survive injuries this season. The team sits at 22-20, eighth in the East, because they adjust on the fly and defend to buy time.

A few other notes matter for depth: rookie center Vladislav Goldin is out on G League duty, and forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. is listed as probable with a left knee note. On the guard line, there’s another wrinkle from the roster page: “Rozier has been placed on immediate leave after he was arrested as part of a sports gambling probe, and it is unclear how long he will be idle.” That listing further trims the ball-handling pool, putting more on whoever starts and the second unit to keep the offense steady.

“This road trip will show who on Miami can create when the first option sits.”

Kings’ backcourt watch: Keon Ellis questionable

Ellis has become a handy two-way guard for Sacramento. If he can’t go, the Kings lose a defender who fights over screens and a spacer who keeps the paint open. With Murray already out, the Kings would have to dig deeper on the wing and hope their guards hold up against Miami’s drives and kick-outs.

The Kings have leaned on pace and shot-making at home. But if Ellis sits, the ball-handling load grows for the remaining guards, and the defense could get thinner at the point of attack.

Odds and matchup outlook: Miami -3.5, total 238.5

Despite being on the road and down Herro, Miami opened as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 238.5. That suggests a fast game with plenty of threes and transition chances. The total also reflects Sacramento’s typical style — get the ball up the floor, fire early, and try to win the shot volume battle.

If Ellis is ruled in, the number could tick slightly. If he’s out, the edge swings back toward Miami’s guards, who can probe and draw fouls. Either way, the Heat will try to keep the Kings under control by winning the turnover battle and protecting the arc.

“If Herro is out and Miami is still -3.5, the books are sending a message about Sacramento’s defense.”

Context matters: the long view for Miami

Herro’s rib injury is painful but not surgical. That’s the key. He will be back when the pain allows, and the Heat will not rush it. With half the season still to play, banking health is smarter than chasing one mid-January win. The goal is to get Herro whole, then build rhythm in February and March.

It’s also worth remembering how much time Herro has already missed. Seventeen games for ankle surgery, 13 for a toe contusion, and now this rib issue. Miami’s record sits above .500 in spite of the stops and starts. That speaks to structure and buy-in. But it also shows how much higher the ceiling could be when the main pieces finally line up.

What to watch in Sacramento

• Who steps into Herro’s usage? Look for early actions to get shooters in rhythm.
• Can Miami limit the Kings’ first-shot threes? One hot quarter can swing this matchup.
• Ellis’ status: if he plays, does he chase over screens and slow Miami’s guards?
• Whistle watch: both teams will attack the paint. Free throws may decide the fourth quarter.

The headline tonight is simple: Herro sits, Ellis is a game-time watch, and Miami still carries favorite status. The Heat have made a season out of problem-solving. They’ll need that again in Sacramento, with the rib news reshaping the plan and the road trip rolling on.

However it breaks, this is a test of depth and discipline. Win the details, win the night.