The Miami Heat and the Minnesota Timberwolves meet again Tuesday night, and the stakes feel a touch higher than a normal January date. These teams just traded blows in South Florida, where the Wolves left with a 125-115 win. Now the scene shifts to Minneapolis, 8:00 p.m. EST at Target Center, with both sides navigating important injury calls that could swing the feel of the game.

Miami arrives at 20-16 and looking to steady its week with a statement on the road. Minnesota is 23-13, hot off a three-game win streak and eyeing a season sweep in this short January set. The Heat still hold the all-time series edge, 36-35, but this Wolves group has been humming, and the first meeting showed it.

Heat vs Timberwolves injury report: who’s in and who’s out

The headline item for Miami is Tyler Herro. After missing 10 games with a toe issue, the guard is expected to be available for this one, according to the final wave of notes, though some outlets continued to carry him as questionable or out earlier in the day. That uncertainty alone adds drama to the pre-game window.

• Heat: Tyler Herro expected available (toe); Jaime Jaquez Jr. out (right ankle sprain); Nikola Jovic probable (left groin contusion); Keshad Johnson probable (G League/low back spasms); Terry Rozier out (not with team, suspended amid a federal sports gambling probe).
• Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards questionable (right foot injury maintenance); Terrence Shannon Jr. out (left foot abductor hallucis strain); Joan Beringer out (G League).

Anthony Edwards’ status is the swing factor on the Minnesota side. The Wolves’ leading scorer has a right foot maintenance tag. If he sits, the Wolves’ shot creation burden shifts, and Miami’s defense can load up differently. If he plays, the Heat must throw multiple looks at him — traps, switches, and early help at the nail.

“If Herro plays, Miami can keep up with 29-a-night Ant — if he plays too.”

Form snapshot and why it matters

Miami is fresh off a clean 125-106 win over New Orleans. Head coach Erik Spoelstra praised the group for leaning into defense and activity. “That is and has to be our identity. We have to play with a recklessness and activity level that exceeds our opponent…” he said, drawing a straight line between effort and Miami’s best basketball.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has stacked three wins in a row, including a 141-115 blowout of Washington. The Wolves’ offense has looked free-flowing, and when they get out in transition, they pile up points fast. That’s part of why oddsmakers set the total at 238.5 (Over -108, Under -112). It’s a big number, yet both clubs just posted 125-plus nights this week.

“Over 238.5 feels wild, but both teams just hung 125+ this week.”

Key matchups and player notes

If Herro is indeed back, his shot creation and spacing change the floor for Miami. It gives Bam Adebayo more room as a roller and handoff hub. Spoelstra, after the Pelicans win, underscored what winning will look like: “I think this was an important one for us to get because this wasn’t a game where we put 140 on the board. Bam and Kel’el were just terrific…” That line speaks to balance — defense first, then efficient, not flashy, offense.

On the numbers front, preview data across outlets paints a high-scoring picture for top guards and wings. Anthony Edwards has been cited between 29.0 and 34.0 points per game with around 4.5–5 rebounds and 3.7–4.0 assists. Bam Adebayo’s recent samples range from 12.0–17.0 points with 7.5–9.0 boards and up to 5.0 assists. Some projections have Norman Powell in the mid-20s scoring (24.4–27.5 ppg) and Julius Randle at roughly 22–22.5 points and 6–6.5 rebounds, though these figures vary by source. The common thread: there’s offensive firepower all over the court, and the pace could tilt toward the Over — especially if both star guards suit up.

Projected lineups: expect late changes

There’s no single consensus on projected starters. Across outlets, combinations included the following names and alignments:

• Heat possibilities: G Davion Mitchell or G Tyler Herro; G/F Norman Powell; C Bam Adebayo or C Kel’el Ware; F Andrew Wiggins or F Norman Powell; F Bam Adebayo or F Andrew Wiggins.
• Timberwolves guard spot noted variously as G Mike Conley or G Donte DiVincenzo.

Coaches will confirm 30 minutes before tip. Given the moving parts with Herro and Edwards, expect a fluid pre-game window and potential last-minute tweaks.

“Spo’s ‘reckless activity’ line is the whole plan to slow Edwards.”

Series history, context, and the betting lens

This is the second regular-season meeting this week. Minnesota’s 125-115 win in Miami flipped early momentum, and now the Wolves are at home, where they’ve been confident and physical. Even so, the Heat hold the narrow all-time lead, 36-35, with splits of 19-16 at home and 17-19 on the road. Tuesday offers Minnesota a chance to even the franchise series while seizing a mini two-game sweep. For Miami, it’s an opportunity to answer back and leave the week level.

The total at 238.5 suggests pace and shot-making, but Spoelstra’s comments push a different path: grind, defend, and win the possession game. If Miami turns this into a half-court night, the Under could come into play. If Edwards is cleared and the game opens up, the Over risk increases, especially if Herro provides another ball-handler to keep pressure on Minnesota’s defense.

What will decide it

• Availability: Herro and Edwards are the top swing factors. One in and one out could flip the spread and the total tone.
• Turnovers and glass: Miami wants to live on effort and extra chances. Minnesota wants clean looks and early offense.
• Whistle and rim pressure: Free throws can settle tight fourth quarters. Who gets two feet in the paint more often?

Miami’s coach put it best: identity first. “We have to play with a recklessness and activity level that exceeds our opponent…” Road wins in January often look like that — hard, loud, and simple. For Minnesota, keeping the ball in Anthony Edwards’ hands (if he’s good to go) and getting early threes will test the Heat’s legs and rotations.

One thing is sure: after last week’s 125-115 in Miami, both teams know the gaps to fix. Add in the star status checks and a lofty total, and this one becomes a chess match before the ball is even tossed.

Final note: lineups and statuses can update close to tip-off. Keep an eye on the 30-minute window for official word on Herro and Edwards. That’s where tonight’s balance may tip.