The calendar turns, the stakes rise, and one team shows up at less than full strength. On Friday night in Cleveland, the Cavaliers host the Denver Nuggets at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (often dubbed Rocket Arena) at 7:30 p.m. ET, and the betting market has made its stance clear. With Denver listing all five starters on the injury report and Nikola Jokić sidelined, Cleveland is a heavy favorite, laying 13.5 points in most books.

It’s game four of Denver’s seven-game Eastern Conference road trip. It’s also a litmus test for how deep the Nuggets can go without their MVP centerpiece. For Cleveland, it’s a chance to extend a strong home stretch and build momentum against a battered opponent.

Injury Report: Nuggets’ star power is in doubt

Denver’s status sheet tells the story before the ball is even tossed. As one report framed it: “Nuggets List All Five Starters on Injury Report vs. Cavaliers.” The headline fits the mood. Jamal Murray is probable with a right ankle sprain, and rookie wing Julian Strawther is also probable due to illness. But the big news is at the top — Nikola Jokić is out for left knee injury management, with another line noting he’s sidelined by a hyperextended knee. That alone shifts everything Denver does on both ends.

There’s more. Center Jonas Valančiūnas is out with a right calf strain and is expected to miss about four weeks. Forward Cameron Johnson is also out for right knee injury management. Add it up, and Denver’s rotation looks thinner than usual, especially inside. On a long road swing, this is where legs feel heavy and roles get stretched.

The Cavaliers, by contrast, are in a stronger place health-wise. As one note put it, “The Cavaliers are certainly at a health advantage for Friday’s matchup against the Nuggets.” Cleveland has used that stability to bank three straight home wins and lean on a rising home-court edge.

“If Jokić sits, how does Denver score in the half court for 48 minutes?”

Odds and market view: Cleveland a big favorite at home

Books opened wide and stayed there. The Cavaliers are laying -13.5 (priced around -110 to -114). Denver comes back at +13.5 (-106 to -110). On the moneyline, Cleveland sits between -800 and -847, while the Nuggets are listed in the +550 to +590 range. The posted total is between 239.5 and 240.5, with Over priced near -110 to -112 and Under about -108 to -110.

There’s a number to underline here: a model-based note pegs a Prediction: Cavaliers win (60.1%). The practical read mirrors the odds. Cleveland is 12-8 at home and has looked steady at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Without Jokić, Denver has to solve both the playmaking and the finishing in their offense. As one summary put it, “The odds tell the story here… the Nuggets are sure to struggle with Nikola Jokic sidelined with a hyperextended knee.”

Trends to know: ATS and totals for Nuggets vs Cavaliers

Cleveland enters at 19-16 and has grabbed three straight home wins, but the spread tells a different tale. The Cavaliers are just 13-22-0 ATS on the season, with some listings showing 12-23 ATS as of this week. The market has often priced them as favorites, and they’ve struggled to clear those numbers consistently.

Denver, even with the injuries, has been a cover machine for much of the season. The Nuggets are 23-10 overall and 19-14 ATS. Totals lean high for both clubs: the Over has hit in 17 of 33 Cavaliers games and a strong 22 of 33 for Denver (66.7%). With a total around 240, bookmakers are signaling pace and shot-making — or simply a defense-first unit missing its anchor in the paint and on the glass.

“Cavs’ ATS is shaky, but Denver’s injuries might be the great equalizer.”

Matchup focus: Where the game could swing

No Jokić changes everything for Denver. He is the hub of their offense, the first read on most sets, and their best rebounder. Without him, touches should flow more to Jamal Murray if he’s cleared. Murray’s ankle is worth tracking even with the probable tag; his ability to burst, lift on jumpers, and create in tight spaces will be a major factor.

Julian Strawther’s probable status helps on the wing, but the frontcourt gap without Jokić and Valančiūnas is glaring. Second-chance points, rim protection, and defensive rebounding become stress points on every possession. If Cleveland pounds the paint early, it could force Denver to send extra help and open clean looks for shooters.

For the Cavs, the assignment is simple: protect the ball, play inside-out, and lean on the home crowd. They’ve been solid in Cleveland, and this spot sets up well against a team in the middle of a long Eastern road swing. Expect the Cavs to test Denver’s legs in transition, then slow it down to hunt mismatches in the half court.

“If Cleveland builds a lead, can Denver’s bench keep it close for the backdoor?”

Game script and viewing guide

Given the injuries, Cleveland should look to set the tone early. That likely means paint touches, quick post seals, and drives at the rim to test Denver’s depth. If the Cavaliers control the glass, the Nuggets will be chasing extra possessions. For Denver, limiting live-ball turnovers is key. They need to keep the pace manageable and trust half-court execution from Murray and their wings.

Totals bettors face a tricky read. Denver’s games have skewed Over this season, but removing Jokić can slow their efficiency and take away easy reads. Still, a total near 240 suggests both teams will get up shots in volume, and Cleveland’s offense could feast at home if the Nuggets’ interior is stretched thin.

Coverage is set for FDSOH and ALT, with streaming on Amazon Prime Video. Tip is 7:30 p.m. ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. The spread and moneyline will be worth monitoring right up until lineup confirmations hit, especially with Denver listing its full starting group earlier in the day.

Bottom line

Everything points to Cleveland having the edge. Health, home court, and the schedule spot favor the Cavs. The Nuggets are tough, they’re deep, and they’ve beaten the number often this year — but this is a lot to overcome on night four of a seven-game road run, especially without the league’s most valuable fulcrum.

For bettors and fans, the advice is simple: monitor the final statuses, respect the line movement, and remember what’s on the paper. Friday’s sheet says this game tilts toward Cleveland. If Denver turns that on its head, it will take disciplined defense, clutch shooting, and a next-man-up performance for a full 48 minutes.