On Sunday night in Rabat, the TotalEnergies Africa Cup of Nations will crown a champion at Stade Prince Moulay Abdellah. Hosts Morocco meet 2021 winners Senegal in a final rich in history, heavy with pressure, and built on defense. The twist? For all their shared past, this is their first-ever AFCON clash.

Morocco are chasing their first continental title since 1976. Senegal are hunting a second crown after lifting the trophy three years ago. Both have been steady and stern all month, and both have the look of a team that believes it is their time.

The weight of history: rivals, but a first on this stage

Morocco and Senegal know each other well. Depending on the count you follow, they have met 31 or 32 times. Morocco lead the series with 18 wins, while Senegal own six or seven, with six or seven draws. The recent trend favors the host nation too: Morocco have won four of the last six meetings, including a CHAN 2024 semi-final that went to penalties after a 1-1 draw.

Yet none of those games were at an AFCON. That makes this final a fresh chapter. It’s a long friendship and rivalry meeting the brightest light on the continent for the first time.

Routes to Rabat: how Morocco and Senegal reached the final

Morocco have been resolute. They topped Group A with seven points, thanks to wins over Zambia and Mali plus one draw. From there, they beat Tanzania 1-0 in the Round of 16, shut out Cameroon 2-0 in the quarters, and survived Nigeria in a goalless semi-final decided by penalties. Across the run, they have five clean sheets, only one goal conceded, and a 477-minute streak without letting in a goal. They have also scored nine times, a healthy return alongside their defensive shield.

Senegal have been just as hard to crack. They won Group D with seven points, beating Botswana and Benin and drawing 1-1 with DR Congo. The knockout route has been steady and strong: 3-1 vs Sudan, 1-0 vs Mali, and 1-0 vs Egypt in the semi-final. That makes five wins from six and five clean sheets as well. Official tallies note nine goals, though some lists credit 12 during the campaign; either way, they have found a way to score when it matters.

“Two defenses built like brick walls — this feels like a one-goal final.”

Defence rules: clean sheets, control and fine margins

This final screams tight margins. Senegal’s recent AFCON finals have been low-event affairs: across their last three title games, only one goal has been scored in total. Morocco, meanwhile, are in elite shut-down mode. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou has five clean sheets, a tournament record, and the back line is organized and calm under pressure.

Both teams have nine total goals in most counts, but what truly stands out is how well they manage games once they go ahead. Expect compact shapes, smart fouls, and lots of patience. Penalties would surprise no one.

Pressure vs habit: what the camps are saying

The mental game is huge here. Senegal arrive with quiet confidence from years at the top. As defender Moussa Niakhaté put it, “Reaching the semi-finals has almost become the minimum for Senegal, and the final a habit.” He also showed respect for the occasion and the opponent: “We’ve always operated with respect — it’s part of the values instilled in us as Senegalese. At the end, there will be only one winner: either Morocco or us.”

Senegal coach Pape Thiaw spoke to the stakes and the setting: “Today, it’s the image of Africa that is at stake. We must not spoil it. Playing the host nation is never easy because of the crowd, but on the pitch, it’s 11 against 11.” The message is simple: handle the atmosphere, stick to the plan, and let the football speak.

For Morocco, the prize is massive. It has been 49 years since their lone AFCON title (won in a round-robin format in 1976), and this is their first final since 2004. Win it, and the Atlas Lions would not only end the long wait, they could hold both the AFCON and the CHAN crowns at the same time — a powerful statement of depth and development.

“Morocco’s wait vs Senegal’s habit — whose nerves hold when it’s time to finish?”

Consistency vs destiny: the bigger picture

Senegal are in their fourth AFCON final and their third in four editions. That is elite consistency, especially after the bump of a Round-of-16 exit in 2023. Another title would cement a modern dynasty, and it would keep the crown under Senegalese coaches again, a point of pride for the program.

Morocco’s story leans on destiny and momentum. The home fans in Rabat will believe this is the year, and the numbers back hope: best defensive record, strong form through the brackets, and a growing habit of beating Senegal in recent head-to-heads. But finals are about moments, not trends, and this will demand clear heads and clean execution.

Key battles and what decides it

• Set pieces: With tight defenses in open play, corners and free-kicks may be the best route to goal.
• First goal: The team that scores first should control the tempo and the space.
• Transition speed: Turning steals into shots can break a locked game wide open.
• Goalkeeper duels: Bounou’s record speaks for itself; Senegal’s last line has been just as reliable.
• Discipline: Cards and fouls could tilt the field position in a game of inches.
• Penalties: The semi-finals reminded us that shootouts are a real possibility here.

“If it goes to pens, who blinks first? Records are nice — shootouts are brutal.”

Outlook: expect a cagey classic

Everything points to a careful, chess-like final. Morocco’s defense is in peak form, and Senegal’s recent finals have been tight by design. One moment of quality or a set-piece could decide it. The Atlas Lions carry the energy of a home crowd and a 49-year dream. The Teranga Lions carry the cool of a team that keeps coming back to this stage and knows how to suffer and survive.

Either way, Africa wins a worthy champion. As Thiaw said, it’s 11 against 11. On Sunday night in Rabat, it will come down to nerve, detail, and that single chance that changes everything.