The Africa Cup of Nations crown comes down to one night in Rabat. Hosts Morocco face defending champions Senegal in the AFCON 2025 final at the Stade Prince Moulay Abdellah (Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium) on Sunday, January 18, 2026. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC. It is a meeting rich in storylines: a host nation chasing a first title since 1976, against a modern power aiming to lift the trophy for the second time in five years.

Remarkably, this is their first-ever clash at an AFCON finals. The historic weight is clear. So are the margins.

When and where to watch the AFCON final

The showpiece is set for Rabat’s biggest stage, the Stade Prince Moulay Abdellah. The ball rolls at 19:00 UTC on Sunday, January 18, 2026. Expect a packed house, a wall of noise, and tense early minutes as both teams feel their way into the game.

History, hopes, and the stakes

Morocco’s AFCON story is long. Their only title came in 1976. Since then, near-misses and heartbreak. This is just their second final since 2004. A win would lift a nation and end a drought that has hovered over generations of Atlas Lions teams.

Senegal arrive with a different energy. They are in a fourth AFCON final, and won their first crown in 2021. Their standard is clear. As defender Moussa Niakhaté put it, “Reaching the semi-finals has almost become the minimum for Senegal, and the final a habit.” He also stressed the mindset: “We’ve always operated with respect — it’s part of the values instilled in us as Senegalese. At the end, there will be only one winner: either Morocco or us.”

From the Morocco camp, the message is simple and honest: “For us, the key factor will be managing emotions. My only fear is not playing freely, putting too much pressure on ourselves and starting to think negatively. This is a football match, a final: you have to play it, you have to enjoy it.”

“Is this Morocco’s drought-breaker or Senegal’s next chapter?”

What the numbers say: odds, goals, and trends

Data tilts narrowly to the hosts. The Opta supercomputer makes Morocco slight favorites at 55.4% to lift the trophy. In 41.2% of simulations, they win inside 90 minutes. Senegal’s lift-the-trophy chance sits at 44.6%, with 29.4% winning in normal time. Nearly a third of simulations (29.4%) go to extra time. That screams tight, tense, and decided by small details.

Senegal’s tournament form is strong: 12 goals scored and only 2 conceded across six matches. They squeezed past Egypt in the semi-final thanks to a Sadio Mané winner in a game loaded with star power. Morocco, meanwhile, survived a gripping semi against Nigeria. Yassine Bounou stood tall in the shootout, a hero on the biggest night of their campaign so far.

Head-to-head history between these nations leans Morocco’s way: 18 wins for the Atlas Lions, six for Senegal, with seven draws. Their most recent competitive meeting saw Morocco advance on penalties in the CHAN 2024 semi-final. It adds context, but this night, under these lights, writes its own script.

The stars to watch: Mané and Díaz headline

Sadio Mané remains Senegal’s heartbeat. He has created 18 chances at this tournament, all from open play. That is the best mark recorded at AFCON since 2010. He has been involved in five of Senegal’s 12 goals, making him the most influential attacker in green. If Senegal break through, the move likely runs through him.

For Morocco, Brahim Díaz is the finisher in form. He has five goals already. If he ends as outright top scorer, he would be the first Moroccan ever to do so at an AFCON. Around him, Ayoub El Kaabi has chipped in with three goals and works the line well.

The scoring chart tells you where the danger lies:

• Brahim Díaz (Morocco) – 5
• Ayoub El Kaabi (Morocco) – 3
• Sadio Mané (Senegal) – 2
• Pape Gueye (Senegal) – 2
• Nicolas Jackson (Senegal) – 2

“If Mané is the creator and Díaz the finisher, who tilts the final?”

How they could line up: shapes, roles, and the Koulibaly absence

Both teams are set to mirror each other in a 4-3-3. For Senegal, the big story is the suspension of captain Kalidou Koulibaly. That puts more on Moussa Niakhaté’s shoulders at center-back and changes the chemistry of their back line.

Predicted XI – Senegal (4-3-3):

• Edouard Mendy; Krepin Diatta, Mamadou Sarr, Moussa Niakhaté, Malick Diouf;
• Lamine Camara/Idrissa Gueye/Pape Gueye;
• Iliman Ndiaye, Nicolas Jackson, Sadio Mané.

Predicted XI – Morocco (4-3-3):

• Yassine Bounou; Achraf Hakimi, Nayef Aguerd, Adam Masina, Noussair Mazraoui;
• Bilal El Khannouss, Neil El Aynaoui, Ismael Saibari;
• Brahim Díaz, Ayoub El Kaabi, Abdessamad Ezzalzouli.

There are matchups all over the pitch. Hakimi’s runs from deep can pin Senegal’s wide men back. Jackson’s speed will test Morocco’s center-backs. In goal, Bounou and Mendy bring calm and big-save power. One stop could swing the cup.

“No Koulibaly changes everything — can Niakhaté marshal Jackson and still play out?”

Game plan and pressure points

For Morocco, controlling the mood is as important as controlling the ball. At home, with the noise and the wait since 1976, emotions can help or hurt. As their camp said, this final must be played with freedom. Quick combos through Díaz and El Kaabi, plus crosses from Hakimi and Mazraoui, give them many ways to threaten.

Senegal’s edge is balance and belief. They have spread goals around and stayed tight at the back. Without Koulibaly, they may sit a touch deeper early on. Mané between the lines and Ndiaye roaming wide can drag defenders out, creating gaps for Jackson and late runs from midfield. Set pieces will matter, too.

Path to the final: nerves and needle

Morocco’s semi-final was a nerve test. Nigeria pushed them to penalties, where Bounou delivered. That experience can steady them if this final stretches beyond 90 minutes. Senegal’s win over Egypt, sealed by Mané, showed a team comfortable in tight, tense games against elite talent.

Prediction: tiny margins, big legacy

The model leans Morocco, but only just. Extra time is very much on the table given the 29.4% simulation rate. One moment could define it — a Mané cut-back, a Díaz finish, a Bounou save, a Mendy claim. Small details decide big trophies.

Whatever the script, this final carries meaning beyond the night. For Morocco, it is the chance to end a 50-year wait in front of their fans. For Senegal, it is the chance to underline a new era of consistency at the very top of Africa.

Now it is about calm heads, brave touches, and one last push to lift the Cup of Nations.